Tesla Predictions

Was riffing with some brothers on Tesla and some predictions came out of it. We’ll check back on this in one in a few years.

Pat Daly: Before 2025 Tesla will be bought, likely out of bankruptcy or extreme financial duress, for less than their current market price of $53 billion.
“A lot of their growth that’s priced in is predicated on their ability to deliver an affordable, mass market, fully electric vehicle and they haven’t been able to do that.”

Tim Ferris: Before 2030 Tesla will either be bankrupt or worth $300 billion as an independent company.
“Either it’s going to the moon or it’s finished, there is no middle ground.”

Me: Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $100 billion as an independent company.
– Elon Musk has an air about him, he will always be able to raise money.
– Their vehicles offer an unparalleled experience. Take a test drive, use the app, and tell me another automaker comes even close.
– Tesla is more than just an automaker- their innovations in solar roofing and energy storage will prove to be very successful.

Sawyer Billings: Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $100 billion as an independent company. Automobiles will account for less than 25% of revenue.
Side prediction: By 2025 the minimalist dashboard (i.e. no buttons, knobs or dials) with a single display that operates the entire vehicle will be the norm across all major automakers new vehicles.

Greg Raiz: Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $500 billion as an independent company.

James Newhouse: Tesla will maintain >50% share of battery electric vehicles for another 4 years, through 2022. After 2022, Volkswagen, GM, and a subset of the Chinese startups will make the U.S. BEV market much more competitive.

14 thoughts on “Tesla Predictions

  1. I’m with Daly – Musk blows a lot of hot air, and has impractical solutions to a lot of problems. Having electric, driverless cars in underground tunnels – AKA a subway, creates the same traffic problem we have now, but underground. He knows how to talk and sell his ideas. It’ll just catch up to him.

    Sincerely, Your #Source

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  2. These predictions are regarding Tesla, not the Boring Company. Is attempting to solve energy storage and move us to clean energy generation and zero emission vehicles really impractical?

    I’ll share a snippet from my post here: https://nogradient.com/2019/01/08/in-2018/

    “Why the Elon Musk hate? Does he say and do stupid things sometimes, absolutely. But zoom out. He has created the first successful American car company since Chrysler. Tesla’s vehicles are the safest the U.S. government has ever tested. He’s making space transportation cheaper. And, he’s pushing humanity towards renewable energy to combat climate change.”

    I think you’ll appreciate this too: https://youtu.be/TXD3Xzk9Lmw

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  3. In response to Daly: Musk’s stubborn hubris will prevent this from ever happening. To sell is to surrender to the superiority of another person or organization. He believes himself to be king of all kings. He will watch Tesla burn to the ground before he watches another person run it.

    In response to Ferris: Really not a fan of the all-or-nothing prediction in this context. Pat and Dick are sticking their necks out and may someday look like complete idiots for it. You’ve framed your prediction in two-sided hyperbole so you can’t lose in any case. Need more out of you.

    In response to Dick: I want to push back on all three of your supporting arguments here because if I don’t call you out for this fanboy doggery then I don’t know who will.

    First, I agree Elon has an air about him – but to what end? At what point does the charm wear off in the eyes of VC’s? Elon has promised commercial travel by rocket, tunnels under major cities that solve traffic, intergalactic colonization and more. Your family still leaves 6 hours early for domestic flights because of congestion in LA and I highly doubt we pour foundations for houses on any planet but our own in Elon’s lifetime.

    As for your second point here – I agree that right now the driver experience in a Tesla is second to none and frankly nobody even comes close. But to refute the notion that this will be a major part of Teslas growth I want to put forth my own prediction: By 2025 the minimalist dashboard (i.e. no buttons, knobs or dials) with a single display that operates the entire vehicle will be the norm across all major automakers new vehicles. Tesla has not done anything groundbreaking inside their cars. They took several existing technologies and combined them in beautiful harmony to disrupt a previously uninterrupted UX. Automakers are not stupid and they are not poor – they will have the resources to build beautiful versions of what Tesla has done. As far as I am concerned you can slap an iPad pro on your Camry and you’ve got a Model 3. Oh shoot, you also want real-time updates to the different settings your dashboard can control? Its called Firebase.
    Now I am only going to dog you on half of your final point here. Solar roofing is not going to make Tesla rich. In fact, roofing will never make anyone rich and there are measurable reasons for this. The first is that roofs last far too long. An asphalt shingle roof is gonna run you 15 to 25 years (source: web) in the worst case and the people that can afford solar roofs come from the same class of people that can afford roofs that are going to last them 50+ years. Furthermore, replacing a roof is an absolute nightmare – people are not jumping to rip the tops of their homes off at a massive price tag. If it was going to catch on, it already would have.

    Where I do agree you have hit the nail on the head is in your comment regarding energy storage. You don’t specify so I will – batteries. Tesla is going to make an insane amount of cash off of its batteries. So much cash that it will start to dial back on its auto manufacturing efforts. To support us both on this prediction, I will put forth another: by 2030, batteries will make up more than 70% of Tesla’s annual revenue (whatever that number may be).

    Wish I could have been at the riff so I could lift you boys into the strato.

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    1. Expanding upon this with one succinct prediction:

      Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $100 billion as an independent company. Automobiles will account for less than 25% of revenue

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  4. Tesla will be just fine. With over $300B committed to EV capex globally, EVs will replace ICE vehicles. That’s about as uncontroversial as calling Brady goat (sad). Tesla has dominated this market, with >90% of battery EV sales in 2018. And they turned a profit, despite Musk.

    Ferris, stop sitting on the fence.

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    1. Don’t DOG Ferris without giving us a falsifiable prediction yourself. Give us something brother, I want you to draw a line in the sand. And for the record, Ferris’s “bankruptcy” part of his prediction will not be considered when we determine who is the winner. As far as I’m concerned his bet is 300 billion market cap.

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      1. Y’all are picking numbers out of the air. In consulting, we call that false precision.

        Tesla will make a ton of money. I can’t tell you how much, but don’t doubt them. They’re well positioned.

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      2. You are DOGGING us without contributing. In industry, we call that a swoop and poop. And don’t front brother, you and I both know the very reason consulting exists is to peddle false precision. Finally, yes, we are shooting from the hip here. But there is a big difference between Daly’s prediction of bankruptcy, my prediction of $100b by 2030, and Greg Raiz’s $500b prediction. Each of our predictions say something clear about where we think this company is going. We are not arguing over a few billion in valuation, we are arguing the difference in HUNDREDS of billions. No one is saying a specific number like $156.79b, THAT would be false precision.

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      3. Fair enough. I still don’t know jack shit about valuations, so I’ll say this.

        Tesla will maintain >50% share of battery electric vehicles for another 4 years, through 2022. After 2022, Volkswagen, GM, and a subset of the Chinese startups will make the U.S. BEV market much more competitive.

        For reference, Tesla sold >80% of BEVs in the U.S. in 2018.

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      4. Love it. Does this prediction refer to the US market or the world: “Tesla will maintain >50% share of battery electric vehicles for another 4 years, through 2022”?

        Also, give me a prediction for Tesla’s BEV share through 2029.

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      5. US market, not the world. And its sales, not vehicles in operation.

        Dude, c’mon. 2030 is complete guesswork. That’s why most forecasts are 4 or 5 year periods.

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      6. It’s like pulling teeth with this kid. Give me a number for Tesla’s current market share and I’ll add your prediction. I just want to get a baseline.

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