There will be no confirmed US casualties in Iran’s attacks on the Al-Asad and Erbil military bases in Iraq.Twitter, Reddit

Why?
• These bases were already on high alert and expecting such an attack. Iran is attempting to save face without escalating this into something they can’t control.

Resolved
• True. The US officially reported no casualties.

Updates
• “US service members injured in Iran missile attack last week; 11 evacuated for treatment.”
• Because the timing of this prediction is so important, I’ve included the Reddit post as well which was made before the tweet. At around 2:30AM Iran Standard Time on 2020 January 8 it was reported an airbase in Iraq was under attack. At around 4:09AM Iran Standard Time on 2020 January 8, no gradient made the prediction of no US casualties, well before there were any official casualty reports. About 10 minutes later the prediction was tweeted.

no gradient in no time

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