predictions scorecard

no gradient makes falsifiable predictions because it forces this publication to take a stand rather than hide behind vagueness or platitudes. Not only do predictions make it easy to track how accurate a worldview is over time. It also gives an extremely potent dose of what the worldview actually is. It is the belief of this publication that public discourse would be far better served if more publications and public figures made falsifiable predictions and then tracked the accuracy of those predictions.

accuracy (no. true ÷ no. resolved)35%
total predictions (all predictions made) 87
unresolved (predictions awaiting true, false, or invalid determination)62
resolved (predictions determined to be true, false, or invalid.)23
false (predictions proven incorrect.)12
true (predictions proven correct.)8
invalid (predictions proven unverifiable or already verifiable when made.)3

Predictions require provenance verification to ensure they were made at a certain time and have not been edited. The predictions of this publication are held accountable by the following means:
• All predictions are tweeted.
• All predictions are sent to no gradient newsletter subscribers.
• A hash of all predictions is published to the Bitcoin blockchain.
• A history of the no gradient website is stored on the Wayback Machine.
• All predictions are published on GitHub to include them in the GitHub Archive Program which will persist them for future generations.

true

  1. There will be no confirmed US casualties in Iran’s attacks on the Al-Asad and Erbil military bases in Iraq.
  2. Before 2030 there will be a stable coin that is not tethered to one specific currency, but to a basket of assets. It may predominantly be backed by USD, but also may include EUR, gold, and other assets to avoid reliance on any one currency.
  3. Google will release a Pixel device with Google designed silicon in 2019.
  4. By 2025 a top three robo-advisor will offer a checking account.
  5. By 2022, Google will release a router with voice activated Google Assistant built in.
  6. Before February 1, 2019, Bitcoin will at one point trade below $3632, a 10% drop in value. BTC is currently trading at $4,031.13. This price drop will be caused by the fall out from the Ethereum Classic attack as more question the security of other blockchains. E.g. A large portion of Bitcoin is controlled by a small group of mining pools.
  7. By 2025 Coinbase will release public APIs for businesses to accept cryptocurrencies as payment online.
  8. In Android P, the UI to indicate battery saver mode will be replaced with something less garish.

false

  1. The one year adoption rate for Android P will be 15% (+/- 2.5%).
  2. A 51% attack is currently being carried out against Ethereum Classic. ETC is currently trading at $5.05. Before February 1, 2019, ETC will at one point have a market price below $2.50. The goal of a blockchain is to maintain consensus. Once that’s gone, the value is gone.
  3. By 2019 the Facebook Messenger platform will be huge, absorbing what would normally be stand alone apps.
  4. In 2019 Google built Android devices will be the most prevalent in developed nations.
  5. In the Pixel 3 phone, Google will release a Face ID equivalent that utilizes less specialized hardware than the iPhone X, but makes up for it in software. Similar to Portrait mode now.
  6. Google will release the Pixel phone through all major US carriers in 2018.
  7. Google will release an Android Wear watch in 2018.
  8. The one year adoption rate for Android Oreo will be 9% (+/- 2.5%).
  9. By 2030 there will be a financial services company offering a fully managed investment solution (e.g. saving for retirement, portfolio diversification) that charges no fees.
  10. Google will release the first Pixel phone in 2017.
  11. The Nexus program will end in 2018.
  12. Periscope is going to be huge. Streaming of protests, sports events, disasters etc. Making tv networks even more redundant.

invalid

  1. Google will leave the low end Android device market to other manufacturers.
  2. By 2030 there will be a financial services company offering a fully managed investment solution (e.g. saving for retirement, portfolio diversification) that charges no fees.
  3. By 2021 there will be a product used by millions of people built almost entirely on Firebase.

no gradient prediction rules

• This publication errs on the side of categorizing a prediction as false or invalid. That is, a prediction is only considered true if it can be considered so beyond a shadow of a doubt. Meaning the prediction is a matter of objectivity and the sources used to verify correctness are without controversy.
• Once a prediction is published this publication vows to track it to its conclusion. Retraction of predictions diminishes the sanctity of this scorecard and will under no circumstances be done.
• No prediction will be published which directly opposes a previously published prediction. For example, the prediction Donald Trump will be reelected means no other prediction can be made regarding who will win the 59th U.S. presidential election. This, again, is to protect the sanctity of the scorecard and prohibits this publication from taking a scattershot approach to prediction.
• Where appropriate, a reasonable time horizon befitting the prediction must be given. This is in the form of, for example, “Before 2030…” This not only gives readers a rough estimate as to the time range a possible prediction may come true, but also to hold this publication accountable by resolving the prediction so it can be added to this scorecard to track the accuracy of this publication’s world view. Predicted events that occur after a given time horizon will still be considered false.
• Justification of a prediction will not be considered when a prediction is resolved. For example, the prediction Donald Trump will be reelected includes reasons why this may happen. The validity of these reasons will not be considered when determining whether the prediction is true. Supporting points for a prediction are firmly in the field of subjectivity and this publication intends to keep assessment of predictions to strictly whether something happened or not.
• If the official name of something in a prediction is changed before the prediction is resolved, this alone will not invalidate or falsify a prediction. For example, the prediction Apple will support Rich Communication Services (RCS) in the Messages app on iOS will not be invalidated or false if, for example, the official name “Messages” is changed to “Apple Messages.”
• Predictions published on no gradient but not made on behalf of the publication are not tracked on the scorecard e.g. the non no gradient predictions about Tesla.

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3 thoughts on “predictions scorecard

  1. I will never forget that in front of gods and men, it was you Sawyer that had my back.

    Also, it’s work hours, you shouldn’t be on no gradient right now come on dude. No that’s fair, you were here for industry knowledge, I get it

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