Ethereum Classic 51% Attack Fallout Predictions

A 51% attack is currently being carried out against Ethereum Classic. ETC is currently trading at $5.05. Before February 1, 2019, ETC will at one point have a market price below $2.50. The goal of a blockchain is to maintain consensus. Once that’s gone, the value is gone. Incorrect. ETC dropped as low as $3.84 on January 28 2019 but not quite the drop I predicted. I wrote about some things I learned from the attack, one of which why the price didn’t drop as much as I expected.

Before February 1, 2019, Bitcoin will at one point trade below $3632, a 10% drop in value. BTC is currently trading at $4,031.13. This price drop will be caused by the fall out from the Ethereum Classic attack as more question the security of other blockchains. E.g. A large portion of Bitcoin is controlled by a small group of mining pools. Correct: On January 20 2019 $BTC traded below $3632, falling to $3410 on January 29th. I’ll consider this prediction correct, but it would be a stretch to definitively claim this was a result of the $ETC attack.


The following are my predictions for the one year adoption rate of future Android versions (+/- 2.5%):
Android Oreo, 9%
Android P, 15%,
Android Q, 19%
Android R, 22%
Android S, 24%
Android T, 25%
Android U, 25%

Android Oreo reached 14.6% by end of August 2018- beyond the 11.5% margin of error. It will be fun to track future Android version adoption rates, I hope my predictions prove to have wildly underestimated Project Treble.