Tesla Predictions

Was riffing with some brothers on Tesla and some predictions came out of it. We’ll check back on this one in a few years. Let’s start with the no gradient prediction.

Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $100 billion as an independent company. – Twitter
Resolved
• True. Tesla crossed $100 billion in market cap on 2020 January 22.
Why
• Elon Musk has an air about him, he will always be able to raise money.
• Their vehicles offer an unparalleled experience. Take a test drive, use the app, and tell me another automaker comes even close.
• Tesla is more than just an automaker- their innovations in solar roofing and energy storage will prove to be very successful.

Before 2025 Tesla will be bought, likely out of bankruptcy or extreme financial duress, for less than their current market price of $53 billion. -Pat Daly, Twitter
“A lot of their growth that’s priced in is predicated on their ability to deliver an affordable, mass market, fully electric vehicle and they haven’t been able to do that.”

Before 2030 Tesla will either be bankrupt or worth $300 billion as an independent company. – Tim Ferris, Twitter
“Either it’s going to the moon or it’s finished, there is no middle ground.”

Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $100 billion as an independent company. Automobiles will account for less than 25% of revenue. – Sawyer Billings, Twitter
Side prediction: By 2025 the minimalist dashboard (i.e. no buttons, knobs or dials) with a single display that operates the entire vehicle will be the norm across all major automakers’ new vehicles.

Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $500 billion as an independent company. – Greg Raiz, Twitter

Tesla will maintain >50% share of battery electric vehicles for another 4 years, through 2022. After 2022, Volkswagen, GM, and a subset of the Chinese startups will make the U.S. BEV market much more competitive. – James Newhouse, no gradient