no gradient endorses Joe Biden for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primary because he is most likely to defeat the incumbent and 45th president of the United States Donald J Trump- who is a bad president. On June 26, 2018 this publication made the prediction that Donald Trump would be reelected because, among other reasons, the “Democratic Party’s primaries will likely produce a candidate that democrats approve of, not one that can beat Trump.” A revolution is not needed, but rather a return to normalcy. The best way to do that is to nominate Sleepy Joe who, according to research reviewed by The Economist and reproduced below, has the best chance of winning “because he is more moderate than Mr Sanders, so both more likely to attract swing voters and less likely to motivate Republicans to vote against him.” And “his strength with both black and racially conservative white voters could make a big difference in swing states.” Absent from this analysis however is Democratic Party candidate Michael Bloomberg, who, according to Election Betting Odds, is currently the third most likely candidate to win the nomination.
Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson of Stanford University found that more extreme candidates for the House of Representatives between 2006 and 2014 increased turnout in their party, but galvanised the other party’s voters by four to ten percentage points more. Christopher Warshaw, a political scientist at George Washington University who has carried out similar studies, reckons that moderates hold similar advantages in presidential races. Mr Trump may have benefited from this dynamic in 2016. According to the Co-operative Congressional Election Study (cces), a 65,000-person poll overseen by Harvard University, voters thought Hillary Clinton was about twice as ideologically extreme as Mr Trump in 2016…Here, Mr Biden looks strong. YouGov’s polling reveals that Americans view him as the most moderate Democrat, on average. They perceive all the other major Democratic contenders as more extreme than Mr TrumpThe Economist
Mr Trump’s support from racially conservative whites may also help him. In an article published in 2019, Tyler Reny of ucla, Loren Collingwood of the University of California, Riverside and Ali Valenzuela of Princeton University conducted a study of the cces data to analyse the link between voters’ self-professed attitudes towards racial minorities and their voting behaviour. The authors found that “white voters with racially conservative or anti-immigrant attitudes” switched votes to Mr Trump at a higher rate than those with more liberal views on these matters.
Mr Biden could win back some of these people. Alexander Agadjanian of mit studied the attitudes of nearly 3,000 Democratic voters and found those with “racially resentful” views—disagreeing, for example, that slavery and discrimination have made progress difficult for African-Americans—were 27 percentage points likelier to vote for Mr Biden than for his opponents.The Economist