41 predictions for the 2020s
A compilation of all no gradient predictions which will be resolved before the next decade. Unlike most publications, no gradient actually tracks the accuracy of every prediction it publishes. Check in on the prediction scorecard or subscribe to the newsletter to follow along on the accuracy of these predictions as the decade unfolds. Let the decade begin.
- In 2020 the United States will not engage in military conflict on Iranian soil or in Iranian airspace.
- Donald Trump will be reelected, winning the 59th U.S. presidential election in 2020.
- Through 2020 Iran will continue to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities as outlined in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
- By 2021 Amazon through Amazon Basics will release a mobile phone.
- Android 11 will reach a one year adoption rate of 22% (+/- 2.5%).
- Android 12 will reach a one year adoption rate of 24% (+/- 2.5%).
- Google will release a Wear OS watch before 2022.
- Before 2022 USDC will be in greater circulation than any other stable coin. It currently trails Tether and TrueUSD.
- By 2022 Amazon through Amazon Basics will release a computer monitor.
- By 2022 Google will release a product for managing users’ passwords, similar to Lastpass and 1Password. It will have 2FA and other advanced security measures built in.
- By 2022, Amazon will release a router with voice activated Alexa built in.
- Android 13 will reach a one year adoption rate of 25% (+/- 2.5%).
- By 2023 Amazon through Amazon Basics will release a TV.
- Android 14 will reach a one year adoption rate of 25% (+/- 2.5%).
- Before 2024 Apple will support Rich Communication Services (RCS) in the Messages app on iOS.
- By 2025 the top three robo-advisors will collectively have >250 billion assets under management. A 1000% increase over the current 24.9 billion.
- By 2025 a top three robo-advisor will offer credit monitoring services similar to credit karma.
- By 2025 a top three robo-advisor will offer a credit card.
- By 2025 Coinbase will release a point of sale product allowing businesses to accept cryptocurrencies.
- By 2025 Coinbase will release public APIs for businesses to accept cryptocurrencies as payment online.
- By 2025 there will be a large scale attack carried out on a cryptocurrency that compromises the consensus of that specific blockchain, stealing over 100 million dollars.
- Before 2025 Google will offer a free Google One subscription with the purchase of a Google hardware device (e.g. Pixel phone).
- Spotify will be acquired by 2028.
- By 2030 wireless will usurp hard line (cables in the ground and on telephone poles) as the main way Americans receive internet in their home. Your modem will be connected to a wireless carrier rather than a cable coming into your house.
- By 2030 there will be a dominant social network built around user location. Facebook, Snapchat, and Twitter use location, but have it bolted on the side. And dating apps are too use case specific. Location is too powerful to not take center stage in a social network.
- By 2030, a major financial services company like Vanguard or Charles Schwab will offer ETFs with an expense ratio of 0.00%.
- By 2030 a top three robo-advisor will start, at least in part, to manage your portfolio directly, instead of relying on Old Guard investment vehicles like Vanguard ETFs.
- By 2030 the top three robo-advisors will collectively have >1 trillion assets under management. A 4100% increase over the current 24.9 billion.
- From June 8 2018 to June 8 2028, Vanguard’s S&P 500 Fund (VFIAX) will outperform a portfolio split evenly between: Firsthand Technology Opportunities Fund (TEFQX), Oppenheimer Global Opportunities (OGIYX), Fidelity Select Biotech (FBIOX), and Delaware Healthcare (DLHIX).
- 2030 Sonos will either have gotten acquired for less than $1.5B or will have filed for bankruptcy.
- Tim Berners-Lee’s Solid and Inrupt projects will not reach meaningful adoption before 2030.
- Before 2030 there will be cryptocurrency coins that track specific stock market indexes e.g. S&P 500.
- China is currently projected to pass the U.S. in GDP before 2030. I predict this will not happen before 2050.
- Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $100 billion as an independent company.
- Before 2030 Twitter will allow users to transact in at least one cryptocurrency.
- Before 2030 Square or Twitter will have integration with a cryptocurrency besides Bitcoin.
- Before 2030 Cloudflare will be valued at over $20 billion. This equates to an ~18% growth rate every year.
- Before 2030 Apple will be called to account by the United States government for their willingness to cooperate with the Chinese government.
- Before 2030 Amazon.com, Inc. will offer a courier service similar to UPS and FedEx for consumers to ship their own packages to arbitrary locations.
- Boris Johnson campaigned on making a trade deal with the EU before the end of 2020. The UK will not make a trade deal with the EU before the end of 2020.
- When the minimum amount of Ether to put at stake in the PoS consensus mechanism is announced, the price of Ether will jump as people attempt to hit that minimum amount.