Category: Prediction

Predictions Scorecard

no gradient makes falsifiable predictions because it forces this publication to take a stand rather than hide behind vagueness or platitudes. Not only do predictions make it easy to track how accurate a worldview is over time. It also gives an extremely potent dose of what the worldview actually is. It is the belief of this publication that public discourse would be far better served if more publications and public figures made falsifiable predictions.

Accuracy (no. true ÷ no. resolved)30%
Total Predictions (All predictions made) 82
Unresolved (Predictions awaiting true, false, or invalid determination)59
Resolved (Predictions determined to be true, false, or invalid.)23
False (Predictions proven incorrect.)14
True (Predictions proven correct.)7
Invalid (Predictions proven unverifiable or already verifiable when made.)2

To hold this publication accountable all predictions are tweeted to allow easy verification they were made at a certain time and have not been edited. Further verification can be made by viewing a history of the no gradient website on the Wayback Machine. Still more each prediction is sent to all no gradient email subscribers at the time they are made.

True

  1. Google will release a Pixel device with Google designed silicon in 2019.
  2. By 2025 a top three robo-advisor will offer a checking account.
  3. By 2022, Google will release a router with voice activated Google Assistant built in.
  4. Before February 1, 2019, Bitcoin will at one point trade below $3632, a 10% drop in value. BTC is currently trading at $4,031.13. This price drop will be caused by the fall out from the Ethereum Classic attack as more question the security of other blockchains. E.g. A large portion of Bitcoin is controlled by a small group of mining pools.
  5. By 2025 Coinbase will release public APIs for businesses to accept cryptocurrencies as payment online.
  6. In Android P, the UI to indicate battery saver mode will be replaced with something less garish.
  7. Google will release a Pixel device with Google designed silicon in 2019.

False

  1. In 2019 Google built Android devices will be the most prevalent in developed nations.
  2. The one year adoption rate for Android P will be 15% (+/- 2.5%).
  3. Google will release a Pixel device with a Google designed SoC in 2019.
  4. A 51% attack is currently being carried out against Ethereum Classic. ETC is currently trading at $5.05. Before February 1, 2019, ETC will at one point have a market price below $2.50. The goal of a blockchain is to maintain consensus. Once that’s gone, the value is gone.
  5. By 2019 the Facebook Messenger platform will be huge, absorbing what would normally be stand alone apps.
  6. In 2019 Google built Android devices will be the most prevalent in developed nations.
  7. In the Pixel 3 phone, Google will release a Face ID equivalent that utilizes less specialized hardware than the iPhone X, but makes up for it in software. Similar to Portrait mode now.
  8. Google will release the Pixel phone through all major US carriers in 2018.
  9. Google will release an Android Wear watch in 2018.
  10. The one year adoption rate for Android Oreo will be 9% (+/- 2.5%).
  11. By 2030 there will be a financial services company offering a fully managed investment solution (e.g. saving for retirement, portfolio diversification) that charges no fees.
  12. Google will release the first Pixel phone in 2017.
  13. The Nexus program will end in 2018.
  14. Periscope is going to be huge. Streaming of protests, sports events, disasters etc. Making tv networks even more redundant.

Invalid

  1. Google will leave the low end Android device market to other manufacturers.
  2. By 2030 there will be a financial services company offering a fully managed investment solution (e.g. saving for retirement, portfolio diversification) that charges no fees.

no gradient prediction rules

• This publication errs on the side of categorizing a prediction as false or invalid. That is, a prediction is only considered true if it can be considered so beyond a shadow of a doubt. Meaning the prediction is a matter of objectivity and the sources used to verify correctness are without controversy.
• Once a prediction is published this publication vows to track it to its conclusion. Retraction of predictions diminishes the sanctity of this scorecard and will under no circumstances be done.
• No prediction will be published which directly opposes a previously published prediction. For example, the prediction Donald Trump will be reelected means no other prediction can be made regarding who will win the 59th U.S. presidential election. This, again, is to protect the sanctity of the scorecard and prohibits this publication from taking a scattershot approach to prediction.
• Where appropriate, a reasonable time horizon befitting the prediction must be given. This is in the form of, for example, “Before 2030…” This not only gives readers a rough estimate as to the time range a possible prediction may come true, but also to hold this publication accountable by resolving the prediction so it can be added to this scorecard to track the accuracy of this publication’s world view. Predicted events that occur after a given time horizon will still be considered false.
• Justification of a prediction will not be considered when a prediction is resolved. For example, the prediction Donald Trump will be reelected includes reasons why this may happen. The validity of these reasons will not be considered when determining whether the prediction is true. Supporting points for a prediction are firmly in the field of subjectivity and this publication intends to keep assessment of predictions to strictly whether something happened or not.
• Predictions published on no gradient but not made on behalf of the publication are not tracked on the scorecard e.g. the non no gradient predictions about Tesla.

Apple will be Called to Account

Before 2030 Apple will be called to account by the United States government for their willingness to cooperate with the Chinese government. – Twitter

Readers of no gradient will know that I’ve discussed this in my In 2018 and Facebook’s Feasible Future is Apple’s Fictitious Present posts. I have also tweeted about it several times (copied below).

For this prediction to be deemed correct, Apple must be called to account in some official capacity. That may be, but is not limited to, Apple having to testify before congress or being investigated at the federal or state level. A congress member or president merely making a statement about them is not enough.

Cloudflare, The Most Important Company You’ve Never Heard Of

Nearly a decade ago when it was difficult for small sites to handle large amounts of traffic, especially from DDoS attacks, I remember stumbling on Cloudflare‘s first promotional video. At the time it seemed like magic. No hardware or software configuration needed, and you could ensure your site would stay up using Cloudflare’s infrastructure. Today, they are valued at over three billion dollars and are gearing up for an IPO.

I’ve talked about Cloudflare for some time now and championed their free to use privacy first DNS service and their suite of products and experimentation that are making the internet a better place. But for a company that powers nearly 10 percent of all internet requests you would be hard pressed to find them mentioned next to the cloud services giants of the world like Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, and Google- that is about to change. With reports Cloudflare is going to IPO at over a 3 billion dollar valuation, it’s prediction time:

Before 2030 Cloudflare will be valued at over $20 billion. This equates to an ~18% growth rate every year. – Twitter

Microsoft capitalized on software, Google on the internet, Apple on mobile, and Cloudflare will capitalize on cloud services. Unlike the other cloud services providers in the space who have added cloud services to their offerings, Cloudflare has been doing it from the beginning- it’s in their DNA. I’m always bullish on companies that are built to take advantage of a specific booming sector from the beginning- avoiding the pitfalls that come with trying to reorient their business to handle it. Let’s see what happens.

Square, Twitter, and Cryptocurrency

Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter and Square, recently made public statements (shown below) voicing his support for Bitcoin while showing his lack of support for other cryptocurrencies. Given Jack is CEO of two publicly traded companies with a combined value of over $50b, it is no small thing for the cryptocurrency space that he is making these statements. I think he is a very intelligent and thoughtful person and I encourage you to listen to him on The Ringer with Bill Simmons or Joe Rogan. It is a great look inside the mind of someone who controls one of the most important public platforms. However, I think he is wrong to think that Bitcoin is the end all be all. Bitcoin as the one and only winner in the space is much more likely if all cryptocurrency amounts to is an internet based currency. But cryptocurrency is more than that and we are increasingly seeing that reality with projects like MakerDAO and Augur. Which leads us to my prediction.

Before 2030 Square or Twitter will have integration with a cryptocurrency besides Bitcoin. – Twitter

This could be, but is not limited to, the ability to transact with a cryptocurrency besides Bitcoin in Square’s Cash App or Square’s POS terminal. Currently the only cryptocurrency integration in Square’s products is the ability to buy and sell Bitcoin in Cash App. Or in the case of Twitter it may become possible to easily send cryptocurrency directly to another account. In fact, let’s make that another prediction.

Before 2030 Twitter will allow users to transact in at least one cryptocurrency. – Twitter

This could be, but is not limited to, tipping accounts or crowdfunding.

Tesla Predictions

Was riffing with some brothers on Tesla and some predictions came out of it. We’ll check back on this one in a few years. Let’s start with the no gradient prediction.

Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $100 billion as an independent company. – Twitter
• Elon Musk has an air about him, he will always be able to raise money.
• Their vehicles offer an unparalleled experience. Take a test drive, use the app, and tell me another automaker comes even close.
• Tesla is more than just an automaker- their innovations in solar roofing and energy storage will prove to be very successful.

Before 2025 Tesla will be bought, likely out of bankruptcy or extreme financial duress, for less than their current market price of $53 billion. -Pat Daly, Twitter
“A lot of their growth that’s priced in is predicated on their ability to deliver an affordable, mass market, fully electric vehicle and they haven’t been able to do that.”

Before 2030 Tesla will either be bankrupt or worth $300 billion as an independent company. – Tim Ferris, Twitter
“Either it’s going to the moon or it’s finished, there is no middle ground.”

Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $100 billion as an independent company. Automobiles will account for less than 25% of revenue. – Sawyer Billings, Twitter
Side prediction: By 2025 the minimalist dashboard (i.e. no buttons, knobs or dials) with a single display that operates the entire vehicle will be the norm across all major automakers’ new vehicles.

Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $500 billion as an independent company. – Greg Raiz, Twitter

Tesla will maintain >50% share of battery electric vehicles for another 4 years, through 2022. After 2022, Volkswagen, GM, and a subset of the Chinese startups will make the U.S. BEV market much more competitive. – James Newhouse, no gradient

Ethereum Classic 51% Attack Fallout Predictions

A 51% attack is currently being carried out against Ethereum Classic. ETC is currently trading at $5.05. Before February 1, 2019, ETC will at one point have a market price below $2.50. The goal of a blockchain is to maintain consensus. Once that’s gone, the value is gone. – Twitter

Resolved
• False. ETC dropped as low as $3.84 on January 28 2019 but not quite the drop I predicted. I wrote about some things I learned from the attack, one of which why the price didn’t drop as much as I expected.

Before February 1, 2019, Bitcoin will at one point trade below $3632, a 10% drop in value. BTC is currently trading at $4,031.13. This price drop will be caused by the fall out from the Ethereum Classic attack as more question the security of other blockchains. E.g. A large portion of Bitcoin is controlled by a small group of mining pools. – Twitter

Resolved
• True. On January 20 2019 $BTC traded below $3632, falling to $3410 on January 29th. I’ll consider this prediction correct, but it would be a stretch to definitively claim this was a result of the $ETC attack.