A 51% attack is currently being carried out against Ethereum Classic. ETC is currently trading at $5.05. Before February 1, 2019, ETC will at one point have a market price below $2.50. The goal of a blockchain is to maintain consensus. Once that’s gone, the value is gone.

Before February 1, 2019, Bitcoin will at one point trade below $3632, a 10% drop in value. BTC is currently trading at $4,031.13. This price drop will be caused by the fall out from the Ethereum Classic attack as more question the security of other blockchains. E.g. A large portion of Bitcoin is controlled by a small group of mining pools.

Predictions Scoreboard

I like falsifiable predictions because it forces one to take a stand rather than hide behind vagueness or platitudes. Not only does it make it easy to track how accurate your worldview is over time allowing you to learn. But it also gives an extremely potent dose to the reader of what your worldview actually is. I wish more journalists, writers, thinkers- hell everyone- did this. Take a stand people, no gradient.

That’s 3 for 12 thus far shooter, for a batting average of .250.

Correct

By 2025 Coinbase will release public APIs for businesses to accept cryptocurrencies as payment online.

In Android P, the UI to indicate battery saver mode will be replaced with something less garish.

Google will leave the low end Android device market to other manufacturers.

Incorrect

In the Pixel 3 phone, Google will release a Face ID equivalent that utilizes less specialized hardware than the iPhone X, but makes up for it in software. Similar to Portrait mode now.

Google will release the Pixel phone through all major US carriers in 2018.

Google will release an Android Wear watch in 2018.

The one year adoption rate for Android Oreo will be 9% (+/- 2.5%).

By 2030 there will be a financial services company offering a fully managed investment solution (e.g. saving for retirement, portfolio diversification) that charges no fees.

Google will release a Pixel device with Google designed silicon in 2019.

Google will release the first Pixel phone in 2017.

The Nexus program will end in 2018.

Periscope is going to be huge. Streaming of protests, sports events, disasters etc. Making tv networks even more redundant.