Project Treble, Coming into its Own

Project Treble is the biggest re-architecture of Android since it was born, and Google announcing that the Android P beta will be supported by nearly a dozen smartphones is the clearest indication yet that it is working.

The following shows the one year adoption rate of each version of Android:
50.6%, Gingerbread                 
23.7%, Ice Cream Sandwich 
25.0%, Jelly Bean                     
30.2%, Kitkat
25.6%, Lollipop
24.0%, Marshmallow
7.1%, Nougat
5.7%, Oreo (August 2018 will mark one year since its release.) 

Gingerbread was a fluke for many reasons, so it’s safe to say that 25% penetration after one year has historically been the norm. The drop off in Nougat and Oreo can be explained largely by the maturity of the smartphone market. The year over year improvement in devices isn’t as much as it used to be, inclining users to hold off on replacing their smartphone for a longer period of time. This downward trend is about to change dramatically.

The following are my predictions for the one year adoption rate of future Android versions (+/- 2.5%):
Android Oreo, 9%
Android P, 15%,
Android Q, 19%
Android R, 22%
Android S, 24%
Android T, 25%
Android U, 25%

There are two levers driving my predictions. The first is the fact that new Android devices will support Treble and thus contribute to an increased one year adoption rate. The second is the fact that the smartphone market is maturing and users are replacing their devices at an increasingly lower rate. And since even devices with Treble won’t receive updates for more than ~3 years, the one year adoption rate will taper off to ~25%.

Let’s see what happens.

 

Scotty Holdridge, Still Here Baby

Scotty-cover

Scotty Holdridge- musician, bar manager, gentrifier- showing us he’s got more than enough life in him after getting the fuck out of tech. No agenda, no outline, no gradient, a riff session in every sense of the word. God bless him, Scotty put the ball in my court quite a bit as we talk Trump, music, feeling old, popular trash, SF baristas, the process of life- damn we hit it all. Listen to the way he says “yeah”, it’s legendary.

Listen to this episode on Libsyn and YouTube. Subscribe via iTunesGoogle PlayRSS, or wherever podcasts are available.

5:10 I was moving in and this guy on a fixie was cruising by and he just yells out “City’s not going to gentrify itself.” I’m with my girlfriend, I didn’t hire movers, I have a used bed. This is the least gentrifying thing. I’m the problem? Right. How’s your day going?

49:35 It makes the founding of this place even more remarkable because initially when he got elected it was, oh my God, this guy is just going to… but the checks and balances, all the shit that they set up. And they’ve tried to fuck with it, the Patriot Act and all that. But it still holds up. That’s what’s so brilliant. In a country the size of us, a lot of people have argued it’s going to be too big to govern…still here baby.

60:00 Don’t conform and trust yourself. I wish I would have done that more. 10 years ago doesn’t put me in the best place actually. I was obsessed with getting the “career job.” And it wasn’t to please me it was to please a relationship. Don’t force anything, do it for yourself. If you trust it and you believe in it, you should do it. Defining your success and pursuing that is the way to go about it. You can and you will get anything you want in this life, but it’s never gonna look like the way you thought it was going to be.

Produced by Chris Derr and James Newhouse. Music by Chris Hoogewerff.