Prediction

A collection of 82 posts

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Trump Will Return to Twitter

Trump will be making an announcement later tonight and it's expected he's going to officially announce his return to Twitter- jk he's probably running for president. This is on the heels of a poor performance from both election deniers and Trump backed nominees in

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China Will Invade Taiwan

China is a decaying nation with an increasingly boiling populace and a government with nothing to lose- war, as it turns out for China, will in fact be the answer. A little history- in 1949 Chiang Kai-shek fled China after losing a civil war against Mao Zedong and his communist

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Binance and Tether will go to Zero

Given the solvency crisis crypto exchange FTX is facing (you can read statements from FTX CEO here and Binance's CEO here, and here is good rundown too), I'd like to say a few words. I've never trusted FTX or their CEO. An exchange that

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predictions scorecard

no gradient makes falsifiable predictions because it forces this publication to take a stand rather than hide behind vagueness or platitudes. Not only do predictions make it easy to track how accurate a worldview is over time. It also gives an extremely potent dose of what the worldview actually is.

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Before 2030 Betterment, Wealthfront, or M1 Finance will be acquired. – Twitter

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Before 2040 it will be commonplace to use technology that translates conversational speech in real time to allow for communication between individuals who speak different languages. – Twitter

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Before 2040 GitHub will comply with at least one government demand to delist a repository in at least one region. – Twitter Resolved Invalid. At the time of this prediction GitHub had already complied wither several government takedown requests.

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Before 2030 WhatsApp will allow users to send cross border payments. – Twitter

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The S&P 500 index will reach 151,528.79 before 2070. –Twitter Context • The S&P 500 closed at 92.06 at the end of 1969. At the end of 2019 it closed at 3,230.78. That’s an average growth of 7.38% per year.

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no gradient tracks

Public discourse is filled with forward looking statements that are seldom checked for accuracy. no gradient tracks will do just this as it has long held that tracking forward looking statements is beneficial for public discourse. This publication holds itself accountable with the predictions scorecard, it will now do the

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Before 2030 a financial services company in the United States with >$1 trillion in assets under management will offer consumers a financial instrument giving them broad exposure to the cryptocurrency market. – Twitter

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41 predictions for the 2020s

A compilation of all no gradient predictions which will be resolved before the next decade. Unlike most publications, no gradient actually tracks the accuracy of every prediction it publishes. Check in on the prediction scorecard or subscribe to the newsletter to follow along on the accuracy of these predictions as

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In 2020 the United States will not engage in military conflict on Iranian soil or in Iranian airspace. – Twitter Resolved True. Why? • Iran will make sure not to give the United States sufficient reason to.

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There will be no confirmed US casualties in Iran’s attacks on the Al-Asad and Erbil military bases in Iraq. – Twitter, Reddit Why? • These bases were already on high alert and expecting such an attack. Iran is attempting to save face without escalating this into something they can’t control.

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Through 2020 Iran will continue to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities as outlined in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). – Twitter Resolved True. The last report in 2020 is from 17 November 2020. Related • IAEA Iran Reports, IAEA Iran report

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Boris Johnson campaigned on making a trade deal with the EU before the end of 2020. The UK will not make a trade deal with the EU before the end of 2020. – Twitter Resolved • False. The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation agreement was signed at the end of 2020. Why • The

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Before 2030 Amazon.com, Inc. will offer a courier service similar to UPS and FedEx for consumers to ship their own packages to arbitrary locations. – Twitter Why? • Amazon has a history of exposing internal services to consumers e.g. AWS. • UPS and FedEx alone had a combined net income of

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Before 2024 Apple will support Rich Communication Services (RCS) in the Messages app on iOS. – Twitter

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Apple will be Called to Account

Before 2030 Apple will be called to account by the United States government for their willingness to cooperate with the Chinese government. – Twitter Readers of no gradient will know that I’ve discussed this in my In 2018 and Facebook’s Feasible Future is Apple’s Fictitious Present posts. I

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Cloudflare, The Most Important Company You’ve Never Heard Of

Nearly a decade ago when it was difficult for small sites to handle large amounts of traffic, especially from DDoS attacks, I remember stumbling on Cloudflare‘s first promotional video. At the time it seemed like magic. No hardware or software configuration needed, and you could ensure your site would

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Square, Twitter, and Cryptocurrency

Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter and Square, recently made public statements (shown below) voicing his support for Bitcoin while showing his lack of support for other cryptocurrencies. Given Jack is CEO of two publicly traded companies with a combined value of over $50b, it is no small thing for the

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Tesla Predictions

Was riffing with some brothers on Tesla and some predictions came out of it. We’ll check back on this one in a few years. Let’s start with the no gradient prediction. Before 2030 Tesla will be worth $100 billion as an independent company. – Twitter Resolved • True. Tesla crossed

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Ethereum Classic 51% Attack Fallout Predictions

A 51% attack is currently being carried out against Ethereum Classic. ETC is currently trading at $5.05. Before February 1, 2019, ETC will at one point have a market price below $2.50. The goal of a blockchain is to maintain consensus. Once that’s gone, the value is

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China is currently projected to pass the U.S. in GDP before 2030. I predict this will not happen before 2050. – Twitter Why? • China’s rise has been fueled via a high amount of debt. This is not sustainable. – Bloomberg • China’s private sector is hamstrung by a communist dictator

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Within 14 days of Coinbase Pro enabling full trading on DAI, the APR of supplying DAI on Compound Finance will be halved. It is currently at 4.80%. – Twitter Updates • As of 2019 December 12 Coinbase Pro has still not enabled full trading. DAI is still in “Limit Only” mode.